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Re: [tlug] GW projects

On 28/4/2020 9:47 pm, Stephen J. Turnbull wrote:
Raymond Wan writes:

  > I wasn't following the news in Japan too closely in regards
  > to the coronavirus (experiencing coronavirus news [and false
  > news] overload right now) but I thought the cluster in
  > Hokkaido and the cruise ship in Yokohama was it and that
  > Japan could manage the situation.

No, it's all over the country (fsckin' *Ibaraki* is in the top 10
COVID prefectures now, about 1/3 in Tsukuba area but not clear why --

Oh...I don't know what we should call what Japan is experiencing. Is it part of the "first wave" or is it a "second wave". I thought it was a second wave since there was relative calm between Hokkaido / cruise ship and right now, wasn't there? (Having said that, I wasn't paying attention to Japanese news so I don't know.)

hospital capacity with cases continuing to increase by > 100/day, and
many rural areas have zero beds suitable for infectious respiratory
disease.  Even when we see a second wave, it will be a second chance
to get it right, but not really manageable unless the LDPcritters get
religion on this soon.

I think it was a Japan Times article where I read that there are one or two "well-known" companies in Japan (i.e., I forgot their names) that make ventilators. But in terms of number of ventilators per person or negative pressure beds per person, Japan was lower than the USA, Canada, and many other places. Definitely bad news, but not something they could have fixed even with 1 month lead time.

Perhaps Japan is a bit too self-confident? With the [well-known] long life expectancy and annual health checks (which are quite rudimentary, but honestly, do not exist in many other countries), they had been thinking prevention over cure. Sounds great...until a pandemic hits.

I'm "afraid", but it's very hard to say much with confidence because
unlike the US, Japan has PRC-quality data[1][2] (but I'm not following
the more serious Japanese media closely, and I know that the serious

There are places that are more likely hiding data. I'm not sure if Japan is hiding data; they probably just "couldn't be bothered"... <eye roll>

There is a fine balance between informing the public and causing fear.

Apartment buildings in Hong Kong which have someone who is under 14 day quarantine [i.e., they haven't tested positive for the virus; they only just returned from overseas] are published. I guess that's ok as long as they don't say which apartment exactly (they don't...just which building). But one wonders what you can do with that information? Aren't you careful anyway? It isn't like once I find out, I'll stop licking those yummy elevator buttons...

But I can't argue with what's working (even if it's mostly due to luck). News today is that working-from-home will end next Monday after having it for 4 weeks. Some rules might stay in place. Cinemas and bars had been closed, etc.

  > Vigilantism with a smart phone...not sure what our society is
  > becoming!
"Sticks and stones."  I wear a mask because it's the right thing to do
for society, but I frequently forget.  You know what gets me back in
the elevator to retrieve it?  Shame.  Not the principle of the thing;
it's the shame, even though before going out the door it's the
principle.  People are weird that way.  (There's a difference between
public shaming and bullying, of course, and the line is really blurred
on social media :-(, so I see your point too.)

I was thinking of this, in particular:

There's a link in the article to a YouTube video which seems subtitled in English. While obviously the girl and her guardian shouldn't have been out showing off her bracelet (which indicates she's under quarantine), I'm not comfortable with that kind of society where recording someone is justified.

And yeah...fine line...  :-(

  > And maybe western countries should learn to make some masks at
  > home...
Some of the USian folks I follow on Twitter are making money at it.
Fashion masks are big too (Sara Benicasa, HacksForPancakes).

Oh! What I meant is manufacturers. Canada (where I'm from) had a bit of a squabble with the USA about 3M just a couple of weeks ago. We're friends...that is, until masks are in short supply. :-)

But yes, DIY masks at home would help too. Anything to help hospitals and clinics.

  > I guess this kind of outbreak will happen again and
  > hopefully we all learn from it...
Johns Hopkins "Public Health on Call" pod estimates every 5-10 years,
and any of them could be a COVID or Ebola.

Yeah, I'm not surprised! One or two I know who study viruses think COVID-19 will be with us until next year.

  > Good luck to those of you in North America, Europe, and of
  > course Japan!  And yes, we're expecting our third wave...

Thanks!  In America (where I vote) we're gonna have to make our luck
on November 3....

By the way, great entertainment coming from your leadership over there! :-) I gave up trying to predict what he would say next...

Everybody, stay safe, stay healthy, I want y'all to be there when we
start meeting again.

Yes! Looking forward to see all of you at a meeting when I next visit Tokyo!


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