Re: [tlug] GW projects

[Raymond Wan <rwan.kyoto@example.com>]

On 28/4/2020 9:47 pm, Stephen J. Turnbull wrote:
> Raymond Wan writes:
>
>   > I wasn't following the news in Japan too closely in regards
>   > to the coronavirus (experiencing coronavirus news [and false
>   > news] overload right now) but I thought the cluster in
>   > Hokkaido and the cruise ship in Yokohama was it and that
>   > Japan could manage the situation.
>
> No, it's all over the country (fsckin' *Ibaraki* is in the top 10
> COVID prefectures now, about 1/3 in Tsukuba area but not clear why --


Oh...I don't know what we should call what Japan is 
experiencing.  Is it part of the "first wave" or is it a 
"second wave".  I thought it was a second wave since there 
was relative calm between Hokkaido / cruise ship and right 
now, wasn't there?  (Having said that, I wasn't paying 
attention to Japanese news so I don't know.)


> hospital capacity with cases continuing to increase by > 100/day, and
> many rural areas have zero beds suitable for infectious respiratory
> disease.  Even when we see a second wave, it will be a second chance
> to get it right, but not really manageable unless the LDPcritters get
> religion on this soon.


I think it was a Japan Times article where I read that there 
are one or two "well-known" companies in Japan (i.e., I 
forgot their names) that make ventilators.  But in terms of 
number of ventilators per person or negative pressure beds 
per person, Japan was lower than the USA, Canada, and many 
other places.  Definitely bad news, but not something they 
could have fixed even with 1 month lead time.

Perhaps Japan is a bit too self-confident?  With the 
[well-known] long life expectancy and annual health checks 
(which are quite rudimentary, but honestly, do not exist in 
many other countries), they had been thinking prevention 
over cure.  Sounds great...until a pandemic hits.


> I'm "afraid", but it's very hard to say much with confidence because
> unlike the US, Japan has PRC-quality data[1][2] (but I'm not following
> the more serious Japanese media closely, and I know that the serious


There are places that are more likely hiding data.  I'm not 
sure if Japan is hiding data; they probably just "couldn't 
be bothered"...  <eye roll>

There is a fine balance between informing the public and 
causing fear.

Apartment buildings in Hong Kong which have someone who is 
under 14 day quarantine [i.e., they haven't tested positive 
for the virus; they only just returned from overseas] are 
published.  I guess that's ok as long as they don't say 
which apartment exactly (they don't...just which building). 
But one wonders what you can do with that information? 
Aren't you careful anyway?  It isn't like once I find out, 
I'll stop licking those yummy elevator buttons...

But I can't argue with what's working (even if it's mostly 
due to luck).  News today is that working-from-home will end 
next Monday after having it for 4 weeks.  Some rules might 
stay in place.  Cinemas and bars had been closed, etc.


>   > Vigilantism with a smart phone...not sure what our society is
>   > becoming!
> "Sticks and stones."  I wear a mask because it's the right thing to do
> for society, but I frequently forget.  You know what gets me back in
> the elevator to retrieve it?  Shame.  Not the principle of the thing;
> it's the shame, even though before going out the door it's the
> principle.  People are weird that way.  (There's a difference between
> public shaming and bullying, of course, and the line is really blurred
> on social media :-(, so I see your point too.)


I was thinking of this, in particular:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3076707/coronavirus-video-clip-13-year-old-girl-dining-hong

There's a link in the article to a YouTube video which seems 
subtitled in English.  While obviously the girl and her 
guardian shouldn't have been out showing off her bracelet 
(which indicates she's under quarantine), I'm not 
comfortable with that kind of society where recording 
someone is justified.

And yeah...fine line...  :-(


>   > And maybe western countries should learn to make some masks at
>   > home...
> Some of the USian folks I follow on Twitter are making money at it.
> Fashion masks are big too (Sara Benicasa, HacksForPancakes).


Oh!  What I meant is manufacturers.  Canada (where I'm from) 
had a bit of a squabble with the USA about 3M just a couple 
of weeks ago.  We're friends...that is, until masks are in 
short supply.  :-)

But yes, DIY masks at home would help too.  Anything to help 
hospitals and clinics.


>   > I guess this kind of outbreak will happen again and
>   > hopefully we all learn from it...
> Johns Hopkins "Public Health on Call" pod estimates every 5-10 years,
> and any of them could be a COVID or Ebola.


Yeah, I'm not surprised!  One or two I know who study 
viruses think COVID-19 will be with us until next year.


>   > Good luck to those of you in North America, Europe, and of
>   > course Japan!  And yes, we're expecting our third wave...
>
> Thanks!  In America (where I vote) we're gonna have to make our luck
> on November 3....


By the way, great entertainment coming from your leadership 
over there!  :-)  I gave up trying to predict what he would 
say next...


> Everybody, stay safe, stay healthy, I want y'all to be there when we
> start meeting again.


Yes!  Looking forward to see all of you at a meeting when I 
next visit Tokyo!

Ray