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Re: [tlug] kickstarter for open source...

Turnbull, you condescending jerk.

Am 12.06.13 19:32, schrieb Stephen J. Turnbull:
Ulrike Schmidt writes:

  >  Since you are an economics professor I trusted you could give me
  >  rational reasons, not merely your intuiton.

That's a very big mistake.
I understand, I was idealistic and naive ;-)

As I said, my intuition is not truth.  On
the other hand, I do this for a living.  It's a really bad thing for
me if I say something in a public forum and it turns out to not only
be wrong, but wrong for a reason I should have known about.  There's
quite a bit at stake for me here....
Yes, I was wondering ... ;-)

  >  Well, I don't care about your intuitions, but about your arguments.

Do you say that to people you have sex with?  Or do you just accept
that they know what makes you feel good even though you didn't know it
yourself (if you haven't had that experience, it's worth waiting for!)

My intuition has nowhere near that value, but hey, nothing does. :-)
I will patiently wait for your intuitions to improve ;-)

  >  As I psychologist I would say people's motivation is relevant, if it
  >  comes to whether they are going to support a project or not.

Psychologists have that bias.
Yes, I am wondering whether it is motivation or something else that keeps you from understanding what I want to say ;-)

But when we're talking a whole industry that could do wonders with a
million dollars, who gives a fuck about *your* 50 euros?
Nobody. I never thought so.

Question is, what make you think that the projects
you like are the ones that "deserve" to win?
What makes you think that I think that?

difference between us is that implicitly you believe that in "Project
X" they have the same "X" in mind as you, and I don't.
No, I don't believe that either.

I suggest
*others* may wish to put some weight on my opinion because I'm an
economics professor.
You hope ... ;-)

If I really wanted to be a jerk I'd mention that
my degree is from Stanford University (sadly enough, that carries an
absurd amount of weight in this country, but I assume most of us are
free of that disease).
Of course you are not a jerk and so you did not mention it. And of course for most of us this really does not matter. ;-)

In other words, I will review my opinions because yours differ
Thank you for that honor :-)

(but so
far I have seen no reason to change my basic opinions, although I have
already adjusted my expression of rationales).
Good :-)

You might want to put
a little more weight on mine because of my qualifications,
I would find arguments more convincing, but then again maybe there is something about your intuition.

but you may
not change your mind.  *shrug*  Anyway, I won't  think less of  you
unless I discover you lose money or face because you pig-headedly
refused to listen to me, because that would suck in a self-destructive
way, and that's about as much as anything can suck.  If you see what I
mean (as a psychologist I think maybe you do! ;-)
I completely understand your problem ;-)

The question I started with is "is crowd-funding likely to be a good
way to fund open-source software and related open-license goods (eg,
CCBY videos)" and my answer is "it will work well for early entrants,
but over time the market will get saturated and we'll be back to the
current situation where projects that will obviously return 1000% to
their investors get funded (one way or another), and those those are
only worth 50% more to their users than the cost of development will
go begging."  (In economic theory, it's optimal for all projects whose
users consider them worth at least as much as their payment to be
funded, so this situation is suboptimal.)

My assessment, furthermore, is that more economically attractive uses
of crowdfunding (eg proprietary games, graphic novels) are likely to
crowd out (both in funding terms and in visibility terms) the FLOSS

Pessimistic, yes, desirable, no.  But FWIW that's my somewhat expert

Why are proprietary games and graphic novels economically more attractive for crowdfunders than FLOSS projects? Are these really the same markets? In which ways can some crowd funded projects return 1000% to their investors and others 50%?

Regards, Uli

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