Re: [tlug] (OT) The enigma of Japan (was: UNIX jobs on TLUG)

["Stephen J. Turnbull" <stephen@example.com>]

Bruce Mcintosh writes:

 > On Jun 4, 2009, at 12:57 AM, Doug McLean wrote:
 > 
 > > On Wed, Jun 3, 2009 at 4:29 PM, Josh Glover <jmglov@example.com> wrote:
 > >> 2009/6/3 Doug McLean <dmclean635@example.com>:
 > >>
 > >>> I'm sure Tokugawa descendant is wringing this hands right now saying
 > >>> "The Bakufu shall Rise Again!"
 > >>
 > >> Oh, you mean Aso-sori-daijin? ;)

Ah, so sorry!  (Wow, a pun that is its own apology!!)

 > > On Jun 4, 2009, at 12:57 AM, Doug McLean wrote:
 > > I was thinking of those wacky Minshuto guys, if they can avoid
 > > scandals for more than 3 months.   :)

That depends on how close the election looks.  If it's close, somebody
will get arrested---and it won't be Nikai's secretary, either. :-(

 > The big question, as I see it, If Austrian Economics is right,,,,

Austrian economists shouldn't be predicting (depr|rec)essions, that's
not what Austrian economics is about.  Austrian economics is about
economic freedom.

 > (Correct me if I am wrong Honorable Econ Dr. T) and the (Mother of
 > all)(Humiliating of all)(Great?)(Fantastic!?) (x + +)
 > depression(s)?  is in fact just around the corner,

I think that's unlikely.  I trust Ben Bernanke on this.  The U.S. will
continue on its roller-coaster ride, and economic inequality will no
doubt increase slightly.  Busting the UAW, however, can do nothing but
good for the U.S. economy.  People like to knock GM, but I'd like to
point out that they did a sufficiently good job of generating revenue
that not only could they put up those obscene towers in Detroit, but
they could pay $70/hr in direct compensation (wage + benefits) to the
*average* worker.  And this insanity has been going on for half a
*century*.  Toyota weighs in at about $45/hr, I'm told, and the yen is
way overvalued on purchasing power grounds.  Hmm....

Japan is another matter.  Paul Krugman has been saying rather nasty
things about Japan's economic prospects and current policy for a
while.  It's not my field and I haven't been paying that close
attention, but I think you can probably count that as the conventional
wisdom.  (With all the merits and caveats that go with that, of course!)

 > who will that benefit? and how will it (Benefit/hurt) us?

It will benefit the nimble, as usual.  Be prepared to fall, try to
land on your feet and hit the ground running.  *shrug*

 > and..... (my own unabashed plug here) What can we do about it?

Change jobs!  I'm convinced that the unparalleled ability of the
postwar U.S. economy to recover from depressions, recessions,
malaises, Reaganomics, crashes, Paris Hilton, black budgets, barrels
o' pork, etc, ad nauseum is due to labor mobility.  (GM's bankruptcy
is evidence of the form "this is what happens when labor relations get
too rigid".)  So let's all be "Going Mobile"!

 > That is what I want to know, and what... well,,,, probably what you
 > want to know as well,,,
 > 
 > Any answers on this one?  Is Gold the only present true investment??

Oh, you want to know how to protect your personal nest egg in a
recession?  A worthy goal, especially if you've got dependents, but
sorry, dunno much about that.  If I wanted to be rich, I wouldn't be
in academia!  Ask Warren Buffet....

>From a "save the world" (or at least the Japanese economy) standpoint,
gold is not an investment, not of the kind that can help anybody out
of a recession.  At best an inflation hedge for a few individuals.
The point is that natural resources get their increasing prices from
their increasing scarcity.  Thus they must contribute *less* to
productivity over time.  How can we afford to pay those prices, then?
*Only by increasing productivity in the *rest* of the economy!*

The real investments are things like GM stock.  Seriously!  Very risky
... something 70% is going to get expropriated in the bankruptcy
proceeding ... but if the labor costs get cut by 30-40%, and that's
definitely possible with redundancies and wage concessions that are
going to have to come, those boys could generate humongous profits 5,
6 years down the line.  (No, I don't have the guts to go there
myself.  Maybe in August.... :-)