Re: [tlug] Holy smokes, Unity and Gnome 3 suck worse than I ever could have imagined.

["Stephen J. Turnbull" <stephen@example.com>]

brandelune@example.com writes:

 > The future of "computing devices" is _not_ real computing.

Of course it is, because that name won't be applied to things that
most people use. :-)

 > For 1 person who does "real computing" with multi-monitors,
 > keyboards and mice, you'll have 1000 people (at least) for whom
 > "computing" will be talking to their coffee machine and doing
 > "network" or "media" related things on their device.

But they won't use words like "computing" or even "ICT".  They'll call
it "remokon keitai".  I suspect that even the word "network" will
change meaning (ie, 100% "social", losing all connotations of
communication systems).

I also doubt your 1000-to-1 ratio; there will be a lot of jobs
creating software catering to the remokon-keitai crowd, although many
of those jobs won't be conventional programming (or even "web
design").  Those people may find touch panels convenient in some ways,
but a lot will be using graphics tablets and other more exotic HIDs.

 > Machines that do "real computing" will still be necessary though,
 > because somebody needs to write the apps that run on the
 > devices. But the era where 99% of the devices on the shelves can do
 > real computing out of the box is over.

That's been true for a long time, although clocks and fans have gotten
a lot of new capabilities in the last couple of years. :-)  The point
being that most people will treat their phones (and maybe tablets) as
lumps of hardware like a digital clock.  And we'll be forced to do so,
too, I think, just as it really doesn't make all that much sense to
open the hood of your car any more.

Within a couple of years, I doubt that most university students will
even have tablets, let alone notebooks with keyboards.  They'll have
bunkopan-sized phones.  A bit big for a phone, but big enough to read
novels in pocket editions.

 > Desk computers will be to the device users then what the command
 > line is to most computer users now.

I doubt that.  We were forced to get my daughter a keitai only when it
became possible to do c-mail to non-au phone numbers.  Until then, she
made do with Mom's Thinkpad and email, but AFAIK you can't email to
phone numbers, and you definitely won't get a reply if you could (both
facts are stupid, come to think of it :-( ).  Nevertheless, we're
still able to keep her PC time > keitai time (requires threats and
occasionally brute force, I admit) because of YouTube, iTunes, and
some friends' blogs.

However, the computer will not be thought of as a computer or even a
networked device, but rather interactive-TV-with-a-keyboard.

 > I'm also betting that in 5 years from now, most computer makers
 > will have very seriously streamlined their lineup and will offer
 > much less "standard" models and a lot more of "touch" things.

I won't touch that bet with a 10-foot pole.  I do not think we are
going to like this Brave New World very much.

I don't think RMS has figured this out entirely yet.  It will be
interesting to see his reaction (by TV; I think I'd want to be at
least as far from that meltdown as Tsukuba is from Fukushima #1).

At least Microsoft is, too.  They may do OK in the tablet/phone world
eventually, but they'll have to start from a much more level playing
field because Windoze just isn't a stepping stone to a reasonable
tablet OS.