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Re: [tlug] Holy smokes, Unity and Gnome 3 suck worse than I ever could have imagined.
- Date: Wed, 19 Oct 2011 02:11:34 +0900
- From: "Stephen J. Turnbull" <email@example.com>
- Subject: Re: [tlug] Holy smokes, Unity and Gnome 3 suck worse than I ever could have imagined.
- References: <firstname.lastname@example.org> <BAY166-W43246B93C742996C64C37AA2E50@example.com> <33989AB1-92E9-4D9D-9D16-560E534AE08F@example.com>
email@example.com writes: > The future of "computing devices" is _not_ real computing. Of course it is, because that name won't be applied to things that most people use. :-) > For 1 person who does "real computing" with multi-monitors, > keyboards and mice, you'll have 1000 people (at least) for whom > "computing" will be talking to their coffee machine and doing > "network" or "media" related things on their device. But they won't use words like "computing" or even "ICT". They'll call it "remokon keitai". I suspect that even the word "network" will change meaning (ie, 100% "social", losing all connotations of communication systems). I also doubt your 1000-to-1 ratio; there will be a lot of jobs creating software catering to the remokon-keitai crowd, although many of those jobs won't be conventional programming (or even "web design"). Those people may find touch panels convenient in some ways, but a lot will be using graphics tablets and other more exotic HIDs. > Machines that do "real computing" will still be necessary though, > because somebody needs to write the apps that run on the > devices. But the era where 99% of the devices on the shelves can do > real computing out of the box is over. That's been true for a long time, although clocks and fans have gotten a lot of new capabilities in the last couple of years. :-) The point being that most people will treat their phones (and maybe tablets) as lumps of hardware like a digital clock. And we'll be forced to do so, too, I think, just as it really doesn't make all that much sense to open the hood of your car any more. Within a couple of years, I doubt that most university students will even have tablets, let alone notebooks with keyboards. They'll have bunkopan-sized phones. A bit big for a phone, but big enough to read novels in pocket editions. > Desk computers will be to the device users then what the command > line is to most computer users now. I doubt that. We were forced to get my daughter a keitai only when it became possible to do c-mail to non-au phone numbers. Until then, she made do with Mom's Thinkpad and email, but AFAIK you can't email to phone numbers, and you definitely won't get a reply if you could (both facts are stupid, come to think of it :-( ). Nevertheless, we're still able to keep her PC time > keitai time (requires threats and occasionally brute force, I admit) because of YouTube, iTunes, and some friends' blogs. However, the computer will not be thought of as a computer or even a networked device, but rather interactive-TV-with-a-keyboard. > I'm also betting that in 5 years from now, most computer makers > will have very seriously streamlined their lineup and will offer > much less "standard" models and a lot more of "touch" things. I won't touch that bet with a 10-foot pole. I do not think we are going to like this Brave New World very much. I don't think RMS has figured this out entirely yet. It will be interesting to see his reaction (by TV; I think I'd want to be at least as far from that meltdown as Tsukuba is from Fukushima #1). At least Microsoft is, too. They may do OK in the tablet/phone world eventually, but they'll have to start from a much more level playing field because Windoze just isn't a stepping stone to a reasonable tablet OS.
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