Re: [tlug] GW projects

[Raymond Wan <rwan.kyoto@example.com>]

On Mon, May 4, 2020 at 1:35 AM Benjamin Kowarsch <trijezdci@example.com> wrote:
> On Sun, 3 May 2020 at 21:45, Raymond Wan <rwan.kyoto@example.com> wrote:
>>
>> On 2/5/2020 2:30 pm, Curt J. Sampson wrote:
>> > On 2020-05-02 13:41 +0900 (Sat), Stephen J. Turnbull wrote:
>> >> Raymond Wan writes:
>> > Regarding masks, here's my current undersanding of them:
>> >
>> >> ...[masks] made out of cloth which are pretty much as effective (as
>> >> long as nobody literally sneezes in your face)...
>> >
>> > Wearing a mask like that is hardly more effective at stopping you from
>> > getting infected when people aren't sneezing directly in your face
>> > than when they are. But those non-N95 masks are highly effective on a
>> > societal level: they greatly reduce the chance that _you_ will infect
>> > someone else.
> Your understanding is wrong then.


Though you weren't replying to me, I have to say starting off your
reply with that sentence is a bit harsh and unnecessary (IMHO).


> Masks are effective in reducing the R value, that is the rate at which
> an infected person infects other people before they are taken out of
> circulation (either by being quarantined or hospitalised).
...
> You are not wearing the mask to protect yourself.
>
> You are not even necessarily protecting people you meet.
>
> But you are protecting everybody by contributing to lowering the R value.
>
> That's the whole deal about those masks.
>
> So please, wear one whenever you leave the house.


Because, after all, you're both arguing in support of the same thing.
Whether we're talking about lowering the R value from the point of
view of epidemiology or how masks works intuitively...

I think a more interesting point is their effectiveness when the
supply is limited.  I presume some western countries aren't willing to
admit that there isn't enough.  Perhaps if they did that, both sides
of the argument can agree on something.  (i.e., masks are useful, but
there aren't enough because we weren't prepared)  As far as I know, I
don't think any country has admitted that?

As an example, before most countries experienced their first wave, the
Hong Kong government suggested everyone should wear a mask.  But there
weren't enough here.  What happened?  Some people lined up for masks
at a store *overnight* -- the line-up stretched for several blocks.
This is in the middle of the winter here, which isn't cold by Japanese
standards, but cold enough that you might actually catch a cold.
Another shop sold *repackaged* (previously used...) masks.  And yet
another one sold masks that were spot-checked by the government to
have a bacterial count high enough to make you feel not-so-good...
And, there were scams where people asked for direct deposits into bank
accounts with no masks actually being delivered.  All of this in the
last 2-3 months here.

I don't know if any of this happened in Japan, but I worry that just
saying "wear a mask" with nothing else forces people to throw common
sense out the window, and then we get stories like this.  ;-(

Ray