Re: [tlug] GW projects

["Stephen J. Turnbull" <turnbull.stephen.fw@example.com>]

Raymond Wan writes:
 > On 28/4/2020 9:47 pm, Stephen J. Turnbull wrote:
 > > Raymond Wan writes:

 > > No, it's all over the country (fsckin' *Ibaraki* is in the top 10
 > > COVID prefectures now, about 1/3 in Tsukuba area but not clear why --
 > 
 > 
 > Oh...I don't know what we should call what Japan is 
 > experiencing.  Is it part of the "first wave" or is it a 
 > "second wave".  I thought it was a second wave since there 
 > was relative calm between Hokkaido / cruise ship and right 
 > now, wasn't there?  (Having said that, I wasn't paying 
 > attention to Japanese news so I don't know.)

In terms of the news, maybe it's a second wave.  But in terms of the
pandemic itself, the cruise ship was successfully (if inhumanely)
isolated.  I'm not sure why cases were noticed first in Hokkaido, but
anything that starts in Wuhan and shows up in Sapporo, it can't be
long until it shows up in Tokyo.  ... and Osaka.  ... and Hiroshima.
... and Nagoya (that was a biggee at first, and still feeling pressure
on hospitals, I believe).  ... and ... you get the picture.

 > I think it was a Japan Times article where I read that there 
 > are one or two "well-known" companies in Japan (i.e., I 
 > forgot their names) that make ventilators.

They're not too hard to make, but probably it takes some level of
tech.  They're non-trivial to use, though, and staffing them with
trained doctors and nurses is a real problem, as much as the machines
themselves.

 > Perhaps Japan is a bit too self-confident?

I think it's more a long history of the powerful keeping important
information from the public.  They don't necessarily have it
themselves, mind you.  And the politicians are generally terribly
educated, especially regarding STEM.

 > There are places that are more likely hiding data.  I'm not 
 > sure if Japan is hiding data; they probably just "couldn't 
 > be bothered"...  <eye roll>

That's exactly what I've been talking about!  That's why I say China
is often better because they're systematic.

 > There is a fine balance between informing the public and 
 > causing fear.

Of course if the public were better educated in civics and STEM, and
politicians (including the non-elected pundunce variety) could refrain
from disinformation, informing the public would not induce
(unnecessary :-( ) fear.

 > Aren't you careful anyway?  It isn't like once I find out, 
 > I'll stop licking those yummy elevator buttons...

You are aware that after Trump's remarks, calls to poison centers
about household disinfectants are up dramatically?  And then there
were those Youboobers licking *toilet seats*, FGS.

 > >   > And maybe western countries should learn to make some masks at
 > >   > home...

 > > Some of the USian folks I follow on Twitter are making money at it.
 > > Fashion masks are big too (Sara Benicasa, HacksForPancakes).
 > 
 > Oh!  What I meant is manufacturers.  Canada (where I'm from) 
 > had a bit of a squabble with the USA about 3M just a couple 
 > of weeks ago.  We're friends...that is, until masks are in 
 > short supply.  :-)

I know what you meant.  Thing is, there's no need to make those in the
U.S. or Canada when they could be made in Vietnam and Sri Lanka and
Eritrea and Nicaragua.  Diversification, not autarky.

As for who is whose friend, like I said, we'll have to make our own
luck in November.  I wish Canadians had the vote.  I don't even ask
that you join the Union! :-O

 > >   > I guess this kind of outbreak will happen again and
 > >   > hopefully we all learn from it...

 > > Johns Hopkins "Public Health on Call" pod estimates every 5-10 years,
 > > and any of them could be a COVID or Ebola.

 > Yeah, I'm not surprised!  One or two I know who study 
 > viruses think COVID-19 will be with us until next year.

I think that the COVID-19 will be pandemicly with us for 2-3 years at
least (especially in failed states like Syria and South Sudan), and
probably we'll not eliminate epidemics entirely, like flu, for a
couple decades at least.  Corona viruses have historically proven
themselves nasty, brutish, and long-running.

 > Yes!  Looking forward to see all of you at a meeting when I 
 > next visit Tokyo!

See you then!

Steve